Speculating but I suspect tail icing. First thing that hit me when the area reported icing condition. (Check out NASA research how icing and tail stall will occur. Scary stuff.)


K.T
ASEL-PPL

The transmissions would be from the First Officer normally.

Great post, I'm gonna link this to my non-aviation-enthusiast friends to help explain what happened to them!

My thoughts. There was an American Egale ATR, flight between 15 and 20 years ago that crashed in in Indiana. It had held at altitude for some time and iced up. This led to an uncommanded alieron reversal. These facts seem similar to those tonight. My thoughts and prayers go out to the families of the PAX and CREW.

J.C.
AMEL, CFI, CFI-I, MEI

I'm concerned....if they don't find anything that "sticks out" - could this be small terrorist acts? And what if we start seeing more of these happen?

Pilot error. Women are as good at flying as they are at driving.

Erik.
CDb, CM, AMF-yoyo

I can only hope Erik's comment is satirical as it is absolutely based in ignorance. I fly for a major airline with probably the highest concentration of female pilots. Our safety record is stellar, and is partially a tribute to the men and women in the cockpit.

Scott, ATP, Capt. Airbus A-320

John said in comment # 3...There was an American Egale ATR, flight between 15 and 20 years ago that crashed in in Indiana.

I remember that. I think I was in 2nd grade. I lived in Fort Wayne, IN at the time. I had a friend in my class whose dad was suppose to be on the flight but missed his connection.

Erik said in comment # 4...Pilot error. Women are as good at flying as they are at driving

Erik...noooooo. You know I love your humor and heckling, but that was a bit too raw for the moment.

Scott said in comment # 5...I can only hope Erik's comment is satirical as it is absolutely based in ignorance.

All the new people will have to forgive Erik. He's sort of our "nemesis" - i.e. he created allenhuntshowsucks.com - but he is usually pretty hilarious and I for one love having him around. He just goes a little too far every once in a while.

Alex said in comment # 2...Great post, I'm gonna link this to my non-aviation-enthusiast friends to help explain what happened to them!

Great. That's exactly why I posted it.

I know it is the code of aviation geeks not to "speculate" about cause of crashes (though I don't know what these forums are for if not speculation), but this sure has similarities to the Eagle and Comair crashes that were ice-caused. Each plane was loading up with ice, with the pilots unaware, until they could no longer fly and plummeted abruptly. Can't remember if with the Comair, the plane was on autopilot, masking the icing effects, as was the case with Eagle over Indiana.

Scott, you must be new to the internets. Here is what you do in the face of the Erik's of the internet.

DON'T FEED THE TROLL

Roughly translated, this means do not respond, reply, reference, or acknowledge the existence of any Erik type person(read: troll).

This has been noobs guide to the internet.

Andy, please stop blogging about plane crashes....I have to fly to Denver in two weeks and to Florida in six....I just keep telling myself airplanes are safer than cars.

On a more serious note, despite the tragedy of the situation, it made me feel much better hearing the communication and realizing how completely in sync the ground crew is with the air crews and how fast they recognized that there was a missing plane.

Andrea said in comment # 11...Andy, please stop blogging about plane crashes....I have to fly to Denver in two weeks and to Florida in six....I just keep telling myself airplanes are safer than cars.

They are. Think about it. We have had 2 plane crashes killing only 98 people combined in the last 7 years. Think how many takeoffs and landings and total passengers 7 years comprises of.

Andrea said in comment # 11...On a more serious note, despite the tragedy of the situation, it made me feel much better hearing the communication and realizing how completely in sync the ground crew is with the air crews and how fast they recognized that there was a missing plane.

You know better than anyone my weird balance of fascination of aviation, and love of flying, combined with an absolute fear of it. Part of what helped me get over that was the learning about the integration of communication and how much knowledge is available to pilots at any given moment about their aircraft, the weather, the conditions, etc...

If you ever fly United, listen to channel 9 (ATC channel) and you'll be very impressed with how communicated the whole process is. It helps a lot.

Truth hurts. I will be vindicated when the FDRs are examined.

Erik said in comment # 13...Truth hurts. I will be vindicated when the FDRs are examined.

Erik you won't be vindicated because what you don't understand in the situation is that even if your assumption was true - that women make bad pilots - the woman pilot talking to the ATC most likely wouldn't have been flying the plane

Flying gets broken down into 1.) aviate, 2.) navigate, 3.) communicate - and in most airline operation where there are two pilots one pilot handles the "aviating" side and one pilot handles the "communicating" side (for all the real aviation people out there, yes I know that was a simplification).

So like I said, even if your assumption was right (which it isn't), it sure isn't going to be vindicated when the FDRs are examined.

Come on dude, as nervous of a flyer as you are (and I know you are), have a little sensitivity in the situation. You can go back to making jokes and wise cracks about my religious beliefs soon enough ;)

Care to place a friendly wager?

Listening to the ATC, I heard the full version in liveatc.com...it was truly creepy, the last transmission from the pilot was a set of numbers, and it just stops....tower calls "colgan 3407" several times to no avail...other air traffic can't see the plane, I can only imagine what was going through the minds of the controllers and other pilots in the area. But the level of profesionalism by all was amazing.

All,
As a pilot myself and also as someone that lost my brother, also a very experianced pilot in IMC conditions, making a joke at this time is not proper. To become a captain at the controls of any airliner weather you are male or female is a difficult accomplishment. I'm sure do to how fast this occured, she never had a chance to do anything. She was on final at 2300 feet, it was over before it started.

Anonymous, I belong to many forums, mainly of aviation interest. I well understand the juvenile psyche of the "troll" and their regressed feeling of power behind the keyboard in fomenting flame wars and unrest. Sorry if I didn't recognize it as this is my first visit and don't know the various personalities!

Regardless, this crash is tragic and the immediate focus should be on the relatives of the deceased, and the people of the Buffalo neighborhood. The NTSB investigators are relentless professionals and will arrive at a probable cause - though not soon enough for the pander of news cycles.

Erik, it is being reported that the pilot flying (Captain) was a male and the female first officer was the one communicating. So, I will take that bet.

Wow, as an aviation professional for 30+ years, as both a mechanic and now pilot for a major airline, this is a classic case to tailplane icing. The most obvious indication of this deadly icing scenario occurs during the configuration of the aircraft for landing. Typically as approach and landing flaps are selected (usually within 10 miles of the airport, and 3000 ft. or less above the airport elevation) the pitching moment of the aircraft changes and the pilot must adjust the tailplane (stabilizer/ elevator) accordingly. If the tailplane has accumulated ice that has not been removed by the deice boots, it's ability to maintain pitch is lost and the nose of the aircraft drops dramatically and control of the aircraft is lost unless the pilots have the presence of mind to go back to the previous flap setting. Regardless of what was done, I'm certain this crew performed with the utmost level of professionalism. This particular icing scenario is one of the most challenging inflight events along with windshear and wake turbulence. My prayers and deepest sympathies go out to the friends and families of the passengers and crew of this ill fated flight.

I remember that American Eagle Crash in Roselawn, IN. I was 4 and a half. It was on Halloween Night 1994, Chicago had a major Ice Storm that night, I remember that because my little brother who was 3 at the time wouldn't go Ticker Treating.

i truly dont´t understand the conversation here. I fully support all the investigation to be made to improve the safety of flying, but I don´t understand the jokes made around suffering close ones, like in this conversation. Last summer I witnessed a error made by my collague sailplane pilot. He made a judgement error on the final and crashed, but he still lives. I followed him on the approach... My 6 yrs daughter was on the gorund as this happened and she did actually see it all. As I only had my life to save I can not imagine what it would be to be flying the approach in th delta 1998 with maybe 100+ souls on board after this kind of accident just in front of them. The professionalism of the pilots on board of the crashed aircraft, the following one and the atc was remarkable.

tommi said in comment # 22...but I don´t understand the jokes made around suffering close ones, like in this conversation

Joke, not jokes. And only one person made any jokes about the situation. That individual was explained in my response (response #8 above) - and refuted for that matter.

We don't censor here at allenhuntshow.com - even when things are offensive. Trust me, if you read the blog, Erik has pretty much some "offensive" thing to say in just about every post Allen or I do.

tommi said in comment # 22...As I only had my life to save I can not imagine what it would be to be flying the approach in th delta 1998 with maybe 100+ souls on board after this kind of accident just in front of them. The professionalism of the pilots on board of the crashed aircraft, the following one and the atc was remarkable.

I agree whole-heartedly and was part of my reason for writing the post. True professionals. I'd take them out for dinner assuming they are based here in Atlanta.

I'm not surprised this happened to Colgan Air. Colgan Air is a money-pinching, bottom-feeder airline living on the brink of closing that places inexperienced kids in the cockpit and trains them on the job. They've immensely benefitted from their founder's political connections, Virginia State Senator Chuck Colgan, which saved their a$$ more than once. Yesterday's wx conditions in that particular area of the country surely demanded a more experienced crew. That's the dirty little lie of most commuter operations across the USA. It's also important to note that Colgan just recently transitioned to this aircraft type. They've only flown Saab 340s and Beech 1900s before.

Ok, just to add that that I wanted to comment the jokes around the gender of the pilot... i also have an 7 mnts old at home and I cannot be at the computer all the time....

So Erik, you claim to be a better christian than Andy Borgmann. Goodie for you. Have a cookie.

However, looking at your actions, commentary, and what have you, with a neutral eye as far as religion is concerned, you go a long way toward supporting the assertion of various atheists and other non-christians that the phrase 'Good Christian' is self-contradictory.

Oh, and please don't attempt to refute this assertion. You'll only make yourself and your fellow members look worse in everybody's eyes (including God's, I'd wager).

Thank you for confirming the suspicions of millions. Your mother must be ... uh ... proud?

Anyway, on to important matters...

It looks like structural icing may well have played a not insignificant role in this tragedy. Here you have a high wing turboprop with pneumatic deice equipment and a crew and organization with limited time in the particular unit (and possibly even in type) going into an airport with a close temperature/dew point spread, both of which are very close to freezing. Aircraft was on approach inside Final Approach Fix, flying level in IMC (see close temperature/dew point spread, with temperatures hovering around freezing at ground level). This is almost a textbook recipe for an icing stall, possibly assymetrical, and possibly involving the tail plane as well.

Also, I'd like to also take Erik up on his bet that the female on the aircraft was in control. Now I'm going to start giving 'Facts'. You won't find these 'Facts' in the Bible, Erik. They're actually laws (it's that old Give Caesar what his his nonsense). The flight deck has two people up front in this type of aircraft. One to fly the plane, and the other to monitor the plane, handle the radios, do the checklists, etc.

So your amusing assertion that it was pilot error fails the 'Fact' test (one that I see you have time with). Just because you hear a woman on the radio doesn't mean she was driving at the time. She was doing important things, like making sure the radios were tuned, the checklists run properly, everyone was safely belted in and ready for landing, that sort of thing. It was her leg this time, as I'd wager that when they left their previous destination to arrive at their pre-BUF destination, She would have been the pilot flying, and he would be the pilot monitoring.

Another interesting point that would likely sail over your head under normal circumstances, is that in my experience, especially in aircraft such as these, the women involved overwhelmingly land the aircraft better -- more comfortably for the passengers. Note this usually applies to non-Boeing aircraft (IE aircraft that have a T Tail and not a conventional tail). In these configurations, women seem to do a much better job. On Boeing aircraft, it's about equal, and on Airbus, when they're not being converted to a submersible, are also equal in their ability.

So presenting this evidence, I'd like to accept Erik's wager, and up it a bit. Let's make it exciting, shall we, Erik? Say, $200? If not, I'll understand. I'll take it as a public statement that you admit that you were wrong on all counts and are going to go to penance for being such a ripe chowderhead.

Dr. Dot

Dr. Dot, Amused at some Christians' definitions of themselves.

you gotta give Eric credit for bringing you so many comments on this post, right?

CJ said in comment # 27...you gotta give Eric credit for bringing you so many comments on this post, right?

Well, I maybe have to give Erik credit for spurring the comment controversy, but the 5,000 page views of this one blog, and estimated 4,800 unique visitors credit probably goes to the link being posted in airliners.net

The all time high blog post at allenhuntshow.com is when Allen announced he was Catholic last year. In 13 months it has about 6,900 reads.

Crazy how one link can create so much traffic in such a short time.

Bob said in comment # 2...

That is incorrect. The transmissions come from the pilot not flying. The captain and first officer swap flying duties each leg. The captain just happened to be flying this leg from EWR to BUF.

Christian said in comment # 19...So, I will take that bet.

I wasn't talking to you.

Dr. Dot said in comment # 26...Also, I'd like to also take Erik up on his bet

You either.

Even if the lady wasn't actively flying she could have done a lot of things to distract the real pilot, the man pilot. She could have been texting her friends or flipping through Cosmo or shoe shopping on the internet or something. Maybe she was just giving the man pilot a hard time about his flying and he had to give her the back of his hand to straighten her out.

The pilot of flight 3407 - Capt. Marvin Renslow - was a friend of mine.

Marvin loved to fly, and he took the lives of his passengers very seriously. For anyone who knew him, there is know doubt that he remained calm and did his very best to prevent this tragedy. Only someone who never knew Marvin (i.e. 3000 hr ATP) would refer to him as an "inexperienced kid"...he was 47 yrs old. If I were to fly anywhere in the world, I would want Marvin in the Captain's seat.

He was a man who loved God, his family (wife and 2 children), and his church. He was a great role model and will be greatly missed by those who knew and loved him.

* notes of interest...

- Marvin's wife learned of the crash at approximately 12:30am, Friday morning. About an hour later, in the presence of family and friends, another call came stating that there were no survivors. Almost immediately, she told her pastor, "We need to do something to help the families (of those who were also killed in the crash)."

- on Friday night, at approximately 8:00pm, Marvin's 17 yr old son was notified that he was accepted to the University of Florida. His dad would have been proud.